Demo-stability

The Australian think-tank the Australian Strategic Policy Institute published a study on the rise of China and its global impact. While economically it provides little new insight, it makes a rare observation that is worth careful consideration. In its contemplation of the possibility of a future more open, or even democratic, China, the study puts forth more warnings than happiness. It argues that a more democratic China will possible give rise to a nationalist and populist regime that would be destabilizing internally and externally. This scenario is certainly highly possible particularly if open election is to occur in China. Nothing in the last ten years has invoke more nation-wide passion than an uninhabited island in the middle of the ocean claimed by all East Asian Countries, any minor more by the Taiwanese government, or the continually failing national soccer team. All these issue illustrates that China has not overcome the national inferiority complex created a century ago. And nothing is more attractive to democratic politicians than easily incitable passions. So, quite contrary to popular beliefs, democracy does not necessarily translate to reasonable government and friendly policies; just look at 1933 German or Palestine now. Democracy is a crapshoot at best. If stability and predictability is what people want, the present political set up in China may be the best anyone can hope for. And if democracy is desired, we must be able to deal with it consequences. What this study makes a mistake on is its presumption that the U.S. government, now or previous, wants a democratic China. It has been using democracy as a bargain chip with China. Democracy is a not even a means must less the end.