Sleeping Dogs

My last entry garnered some very nice comments. I thank the commentors for contributing. I agree with them that better understanding of each other, particularly at the top level of both government, is desperately needed. Zakaria's suggestion at the end of his article is therefore an excellent one. The problem is that direct dialogue between the two leaders would not serve that purpose very well. As strong as both leaders want to appear, their powers are limited to a great degree by their personal and domestic circumstances. I seriously doubt the ability of George W. Bush to understand the situation across the pacific. He has not displayed any ability to understand subtleties and nuances in anything. The problem with the U.S. government is not that they have no one who has some good understanding of China but that those people are always under suspicion. Hu Jintao seems to understand, or at least formulated some ways to deal with, the U.S. better, but he is not in a position near absolute power, like those before him, but as the front man for a collective. Their concerns are practical—how to work the U.S. political system. Most would agree they have been doing a pretty good job in the last few years. The immediate and most important concerns of the Chinese government is not the U.S. but their domestic issue, and to them, that include Taiwan. The government of China has no desire to be friend or foe with the U.S. They just want to keep the U.S. out of their affairs. There is also no desire for Washington to have any special relationship with China at the moment because, frankly, they are too occupied else where. This results in the oddness of this state-maybe-not-so-state visit. China wants to do business and photo ops and the the U.S. wants to look imperially disinterested. That is a bit of a role reversal. All the noises we hear are from neither government, they seem to be fairly happy with the state of affairs. As much as some people want to bring the relationship between the countries to the forefront of the political agenda, it does not seem either governments are eagered to do so. Maybe they know it is a can of worms that is better left closed. In the long run, this may serve the Chinese government better but the U.S. cannot afford to make another enemy, much less one as powerful as China, right now. It is a postponement that may not turn out to be a bad thing. As wages continue to rise in China, the trade balance will no doubt decrease in time. If the DPP fails to win the next election in Taiwan as expected, the temperature on the Strait will cool considerable. And if the Chinese government can manage the growth of the economy in the next few years, resisting dramatic rise of the Yuan's value being the most important, there will be no major instabitlies domestically. All these mean the Pacific will continue to be stable. If, however, a ideological or economic war were to start, the consequece is too horrible to contemplate.